Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX)
SPCX closed at 146.90 after a strong earnings beat on October 20th, but the stock is caught between two opposing signals. The weekly chart shows a recovery from August lows, while the daily picture has rolled over from recent highs. Understanding which one holds matters for what comes next.
The long-term picture
Over the past several months, SPCX has traced a clear recovery pattern. The stock bottomed at 108.37 in August and has since climbed 35.6% from that low. The weekly chart shows two distinct swings: a high of 185.0 in early October, followed by a pullback to 140.66 mid-October, then a rebound to 166.18 by late October. At 146.90, the stock sits almost exactly in the middle of its closing range from the start of this period to now, which suggests it's neither extended nor deeply depressed on the longer timeframe.
The key weekly support level sits at 104.83, which is 28.6% below current price. Resistance is at 176.42, the high from early October, which is 20.1% above where the stock trades today. The weekly structure suggests SPCX is consolidating after a strong move, with room to run in either direction but no clear conviction yet.
The short-term picture
The daily picture tells a different story. Over the past month, SPCX has climbed 28.3% from 114.53 to 146.90, but momentum has stalled. The stock hit 171.92 in early October, then fell to 140.66 by mid-October before bouncing to 166.18 last week. Today it sits 14.6% below that recent high and only 4.2% above the daily support level of 140.66.
This is the conflict: the weekly chart shows a stock in recovery mode with room to move higher, but the daily chart shows a stock that has failed twice to hold above 166 and is now sitting very close to its recent low. If daily support at 140.66 breaks, the stock would fall another 4.2% to test that level. The earnings beat on October 20th provided a catalyst, but the stock has not sustained the move, which is a warning sign on the shorter timeframe.
What's driving it
SPCX beat earnings by 112% on October 20th, a substantial surprise that marked a turning point on both charts. The stock rallied into and through that event, but has since given back gains, suggesting the market may have already priced in the positive result. Recent headlines mention a potential SpaceX merger that could accelerate Tesla's AI and autonomous driving efforts, though this remains speculation and has not been confirmed by the company. No other near-term catalysts are evident in the supplied news.
What would change this
The daily support level at 140.66 is the critical line. If SPCX closes below it, the daily uptrend would break, and the stock would likely test the next support at 133.1 (a low from late August). That would represent a 9% drop from current levels and would signal that the earnings beat was not enough to sustain momentum. Conversely, if the stock rallies above the daily resistance at 166.18 and holds there for several days, it would confirm that the weekly recovery is still intact and could target the weekly resistance at 176.42. Breaking above 176.42 would mean the stock is making new highs and the weekly uptrend has genuine strength.
Key takeaways
- SPCX beat earnings by 112% on October 20th but has not sustained the rally, now sitting 4.2% above its daily support level.
- Weekly chart shows a 35.6% recovery from August lows with resistance at 176.42; daily chart shows momentum stalled near recent highs.
- The two timeframes conflict: weekly suggests room to move higher, daily suggests caution near support.
- A close below 140.66 would break the daily uptrend and test 133.1; a move above 166.18 would confirm the weekly recovery is still valid.
This one was our pick. The next one is yours.
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