Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)
Fair Isaac is down nearly 60% from its peak, and the stock is now trading near 800 after a sharp drop in early October. Both the weekly and daily charts are moving in the same direction—downward—which means the near-term weakness aligns with the longer-term decline.
The long-term picture
Over the past several months, FICO has traced a clear downtrend. The stock peaked at 2375.03, then fell to a low of 661.25. Recent price action shows two failed attempts to recover: a swing high of 1188.8 in late August, followed by a dip to 885.0 in early September, then another high of 1014.0 in mid-September before collapsing to 586.05 in early October. That 586.05 low is now the key support level on the weekly chart.
At 799.73, the stock sits 26.7% above that support, but it's also 66.3% below the peak. The weekly picture is one of sustained weakness with no clear resistance overhead—the recent swing high of 1014.0 is now acting as a ceiling rather than a floor.
The short-term picture
The daily chart shows similar pressure. Over the past two weeks, FICO has oscillated between a high of 764.0 and a low of 609.0, with support now sitting at 663.12. At 799.73, the stock is 17.1% above that daily support but still 26.8% below the resistance level of 1014.0.
Momentum on the daily timeframe is neutral to slightly negative. The stock is 35% above its recent daily low of 592.47, but it remains 41.8% below its recent daily high of 1373.08. The weekly and daily views agree: both are pointing downward, and both show the stock trapped between support below and resistance above with no clear breakout in sight.
What's driving it
FICO beat earnings on July 29 by 3.43%, but that beat has not arrested the decline. Since then, the stock has fallen 40% on the daily timeframe. Two analyst firms have recently lowered price targets: Mizuho cut its target to 1063, and RBC Capital cut its target to 1045. Both firms maintain outperform ratings, but the lower targets reflect the weakness in the stock price. The company released data analysis on UK credit card trends, but there is no indication this has moved the needle on price.
What would change this
A break above 1014.0 would signal that the recent downtrend is losing steam. That level has acted as both a swing high and now as resistance, so clearing it would suggest buyers are stepping in after the October collapse. Conversely, a break below 586.05—the weekly support level—would confirm that the downtrend has further to run and would open the door to a test of the 661.25 low from earlier in the year. Right now, the stock is caught between these two levels with no clear catalyst to break the stalemate.
Key takeaways
- FICO has fallen 60% from its peak of 2375 and is now trading 27% above its October low of 586.
- Weekly and daily charts both show downward momentum with no resistance overhead until 1014.
- Support sits at 586 on the weekly chart and 663 on the daily chart; the stock is 17–27% above both.
- Analyst price targets of 1045–1063 imply 30–33% upside from current levels, but the downtrend remains intact.
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