Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)
Dell Technologies is trading at 424.30, well off the highs it reached in early October. The longer chart still shows a strong uptrend, but the shorter chart has been falling, and the two are pointing in different directions right now. That disagreement is the main thing worth understanding here.
The long-term picture
Look at the weekly chart and the big picture is strong. Over the period shown, Dell's closing price rose from about 134 to 424, a gain of roughly 216%. The highest weekly close in that stretch was 586.06, and the lowest was 71.63.
The trend is defined by a series of peaks and valleys. Since early September the stock has bottomed at 421.89 on September 4, climbed to 595.51 on September 18, dropped to 520.18 on October 2, and rallied again to 595.06 on October 9. Each low has been higher than the one before it, and the stock keeps testing the same ceiling near 595 without clearly breaking through. That's a pattern traders call a double top when it fails, and a base for another leg up when it holds.
Price currently sits about 15% above the 358.88 support level, which is the nearest floor the weekly data identifies. There is no clear resistance level above the current price on this timeframe.
The short-term picture
The daily chart tells a more cautious story. Over the most recent stretch, the stock fell about 6.5%, and it closed at its lowest point of that run on the last day shown. It is now about 28% below its recent high of 588.40.
The short-term pattern is a series of lower highs and lower lows. A swing high reached 507.38 on October 27, and the stock has since moved down to 424.30. Immediately overhead, the nearest level that matters is resistance at 507.79, roughly 20% above where the stock trades now.
The weekly and daily views disagree. The longer picture is still rising, while the shorter picture is falling. A reader should not assume one cancels the other. Short-term weakness inside a long-term uptrend is common, but it can also be the first sign that the longer trend is losing steam.
What's driving it
Dell's most recent earnings report came on September 1, and the company beat expectations by about 43%. That report is marked on both charts. The stock rallied in the weeks that followed, which fits with a strong quarter being the driver of the longer uptrend.
The recent decline is tied to news about the broader PC market. Headlines describe Intel warning of a deepening slump in PC demand and ongoing memory shortages, and reports say Dell and HP shares fell after that warning. Those headlines are the most plausible explanation for the short-term drop, but they describe a sector-wide concern rather than anything specific to Dell's own results.
What would change this
The short-term picture would look different if the stock climbed back above the 507.79 resistance level. A daily close above that level would break the pattern of lower highs and suggest the pullback is over. Until then, the daily trend points down.
The long-term picture would weaken if the stock fell below the 358.88 support level on the weekly chart. That would be about 15% below the current price, and it would break the series of higher lows that has defined the uptrend since early September. A move below that floor would suggest the longer trend is no longer intact.
Key takeaways
- Dell's weekly chart is up about 216% over the period shown, but the stock is about 28% below its recent daily high.
- The daily chart shows lower highs since late October, with resistance at 507.79 about 20% above the current price.
- The weekly and daily views disagree: the long-term trend is up while the short-term trend is down.
- Support on the weekly chart sits at 358.88, roughly 15% below the current price, and a break below it would challenge the longer uptrend.
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