Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)
Coinbase closed at $143.54, sitting near the bottom of its recent range and well below where it traded earlier in the period. Both the longer and shorter views point the same direction right now, which is down, but the most recent daily swings hint at a small rebound attempt worth watching.
The long-term picture
On the weekly chart, the picture is a clear downtrend. Over the period shown, the stock fell from $270.74 to $143.54, a drop of 47%. The highest weekly close was $419.78, so price is now about 66% below that peak. Price is sitting at the lowest close of the range, which means it has not yet recovered from its low point.
The swing points tell the same story in more detail. The stock made a low at $139.11 on July 31, then rallied to a high of $195.85 on September 4. It pulled back to $161.18 on September 18, then pushed up to $208.33 on September 25. That is a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since the July bottom, which is a recovery pattern, not a continued slide.
The weekly chart has no clearly marked support or resistance level, so the boundaries here come from those swing points. The $139.11 low is the one that matters most: it is the lowest point on the weekly chart, and a close below it would mark a new low for the period.
The short-term picture
The daily chart is moving the same way as the weekly chart, which is down. Over the recent stretch, the stock fell from $153.60 to $143.54, a drop of 6.5%. The highest daily close was $201.07, so price is about 29% below that recent high.
The most recent daily swings show a small bounce. The stock dipped to $165.80 on October 15, rose to $183.40 the next day, dipped to $165.90 on October 20, and reached $180.60 on October 21. Those are higher lows and roughly flat highs, which suggests buyers are stepping in at lower prices but have not yet pushed past the recent peak.
The daily chart marks resistance at $184.86. Price is about 29% below that level. For the short-term picture to shift, the stock would need to climb back toward that line. Right now, the two timeframes agree: the weekly trend is down, and the daily trend is also down, even though the recent daily bounce looks like a pause rather than a reversal.
What's driving it
The most recent earnings report, dated October 29, beat expectations by a wide margin, with a surprise of about 2,976%. The chart marks this date with a labelled vertical line. Even so, the stock is still trading lower than it was before the report, which suggests the earnings beat has not been enough to offset the broader selling.
Several recent headlines focus on the crypto sector. One reports that Coinbase, Robinhood, and other crypto exchange stocks fell after a Binance hack exposed vulnerabilities. Analysts at Rosenblatt, Canaccord Genuity, and JP Morgan have each kept their buy or overweight ratings while lowering their price targets, to $185, $275, and $187 respectively. Those cuts are a signal that analysts expect less upside than they did before.
What would change this
The current read is down with a tentative bounce. If the stock closes below the $139.11 weekly low, the longer-term picture would weaken further, and the recovery pattern from July would be broken. That would suggest the stock is making new lows rather than building a base.
On the upside, a daily close above the $184.86 resistance level would change the short-term picture. It would show that buyers are pushing price past the level that has capped recent rallies, and it would make the October bounce look more like the start of a recovery. Until that happens, the daily chart stays capped.
Key takeaways
- COIN closed at $143.54, down 47% over the weekly view and about 66% below its highest weekly close of $419.78.
- The weekly chart has higher highs and higher lows since the July 31 low of $139.11, a sign of recovery within a longer downtrend.
- The daily chart shows a small bounce from $165.80 to $180.60, but price has not reached the $184.86 resistance level.
- Both timeframes are moving down, and the stock must close above $184.86 to shift the short-term view, or below $139.11 to weaken the longer-term view.
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